How we know if extreme weather is due to climate change: ‘Event Attribution’
- ‘Event attribution’ is a field of research that works out what percentage, if any, climate change is responsible for the frequency and scale of extreme weather and other events such as extreme forest fires, melting glaciers, and rapid phenological shifts (plants and animals moving and/or dying out) and drought (Fig. 1).
- Event attribution is based in part on models of past events, in part on dozens, sometimes hundreds of years of recorded observations, and in part on geological and archeological records.
- If we understand how likely an event is due to climate change versus the internal ‘noise’ of Earth’s climate—purely natural fluctuations such as El Niño—we are in a better position to plan for and help mitigate future climate costs.
- Insurance underwriters use these tools to help calculate how much you will have to pay for insurance, or to decline insurance; for example if you live in an area at risk from rising sea levels.
For too long, weather’s randomness has kept events such as these from being blamed squarely on climate change… Now, we can specify increased chances for specific events. This extends to forecasts: we can identify the places that are more likely to see wildfires, mudslides and fish die-offs. Such calculations dent both climate denial and a false sense of security. They take away the argument that ‘extreme weather happens anyway, so we don’t need to worry about it’. Extreme weather happens—and these metrics pinpoint what is becoming more likely, by how much and why… Such evidence is also useful for legal proceedings when citizens call corporations or governments to account for their role in climate change.“ – Richard A. Betts
As this is such a diverse field, if you would like to know more about specific events, this Google Doc contains a comprehensive list of global peer-reviewed research and links where to go for the original publications (Fig. 2). The document is periodically updated.
Carbon Brief also regularly archives ‘science explainer’ event-attribution articles, including research on New Zealand’s vanishing glaciers. and patterns of extreme rainfall and drought (Fig. 3).
“More than 300 peer-reviewed studies have been published since 2000, that examine weather extremes around the world, from wildfires in Alaska (pdf) and hurricanes in the Caribbean to flooding in France and heatwaves in China. The result is mounting evidence that human activity is raising the risk of some types of extreme weather, especially those linked to heat.” – Carbon Brief
References and further reading
- National Science Challenges
- 2021: Explaining Extreme Events from a Climate Perspective; Special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association (open access)
- 2020: Betts; Heed blame for extreme weather, Nature article 26 Jan (open access)
- NZ Ministry for the Environment: Environmental Reporting – New Zealand Extreme weather events
- Carbon Brief: Extreme weather attribution Nature Climate Change 10 pp726–731
- 2020: Bonfils et al; Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity Nature Climate Change 10 pp726–731
- 2020: Vargo et al; Anthropogenic warming forces extreme annual glacier mass loss Nature Climate Change
- 2020: Ortega; Unusual Arctic warming explained by overlooked greenhouse gases, Science
- 2020: Smith; The unexpected link between the ozone hole and arctic amplification The Conversation