Response: NDCs – Nationally Determined Contributions

NDCs – Nationally Determined Contributions

“New Zealand’s Paris Agreement target is inconsistent with the Government’s goal of keeping the average temperature increase to within 1.5°C, officials have told ministers. The advice from the Ministry for the Environment was given to Climate Change Minister James Shaw in February and obtained by Stuff under the Official Information Act.

“Shaw was told the target allows some 85 million tonnes more emissions between 2021 and 2030 than would be compatible with a 1.5°C goal – putting the country over budget by about one year’s current emissions.” –  Stuff July 2020

(Image: Macrovector@Freepik)

NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions


Fig. 2: New Zealand’s commitments to reduce net emissions are insufficient to stay within what the IPCC deemed as ‘safe’ temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-Industrial levels. We also exceed the ‘dangerous’ 2°C levels and instead are aiming for 3°C (Image: Nature)
Fig. 3: (Ministry for the Environment)


Net emissions:

Net emissions means gross greenhouse gas emissions (‘spending’ carbon) from all industrial activities, burning fossil fuels for energy, and agriculture, minus carbon sinks (‘saving’ carbon) from forestry, changing agricultural to improve soils, and regenerating natural ecosystems. However, instead of declining, global emissions continue to increase each year. Due to reduced transport, Covid-19 meant a temporary respite of carbon dioxide emissions. However, that has not reduced agriculture emissions in New Zealand and elsewhere. Manufacturing in China has also resurged. Moreover, dangerous tipping points are being breached, which means natural carbon sinks are now becoming sources of methane and carbon dioxide.